Public Transportation Demand Analysis: A Case Study of Metropolitan Lagos

Modelling, simulation, and forecasting offer a means of facilitating better planning decision-making. These quantitative approaches can add value beyond traditional methods that do not rely on data are particularly relevant for public transportation. Lagos is experiencing rapid urbanization currently has population just under 15 million. Both long waiting times uncertain travel driven many people to acquire their own vehicle or use alternative modes transport. This significantly increased the number vehicles roads leading even more traffic greater congestion. paper investigates urban demand in explores passenger dynamics time space. Using individual commuter trip from tickets purchased State Bus Rapid Transit (BRT), patterns through hours day, days week bus stations analysed. study aims quantify actual trips estimate impact dynamic scheduling could have times. Station segmentation provided cluster by characteristics order tailor specific schedules. Intra-day transportation BRT analysed predictions compared. Simulations using fixed demonstrate average be reduced as much 80%. The load curves, insights approach developed will useful informing policymaking similar African cities facing challenges urbanization.